The global online gaming industry experienced a combination of regulatory and market adjustments in 2025, with regulatory action in parts of Asia affecting established business patterns, while the United States forecast a continued expansion of the market in size and participation, attracting an influx of scattered and institutional investors. Over the past two years, multiple platforms, including PrizePicks, Underdog, Novig and United States President Truth Predict, have entered the site. On 17 December 2025, Encrypted Currency Exchange Genimi launched its own market platform for forecasting, and Fanatics released similar products earlier that month, demonstrating increased industry confidence in the commercial viability of this area.
This wave goes beyond the United States. The British wager exchange Matchbook plans to launch a forecast market platform in January with the intention of competing with mature United States operators, such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Draft Kings also speeded up its prediction platform after obtaining key federal approvals. This points to the simple fact that operators are transitioning with changes in consumer behaviour and emerging market participation patterns are emerging. However, forecasts of market growth have also raised concerns among traditional lottery stakeholders. The president of the American Lottery Association (AGA) and CEO Bill Miller publicly stated that the predictive platform was threatening the existing regulatory ecology: “They endangered the communities we serve, the protected customers and the standards of maintenance we serve”. He noted that the platforms sought to circumvent compliance practices faced by card-holders, “they wanted opportunities without assuming compliance responsibilities”, and warned that such models could weaken consumer protection and regulatory oversight. As the contradictions intensified, market operators were projected to start organizing independently. Kalshi and Crypto recently announced the formation of a national industry organization, the Alliance for Predicted Markets, in association with Coinbase, Robinhod and Underdog, with the aim of promoting federal regulation and a transparent national predictable market access system.
The initiative coincides with a period of rapid growth in industry — according to polls commissioned by Kalshi, nearly half of Americans under the age of 45 have used online financial or forecast markets. The volume of transactions surged to $28 billion as of October, of which Kalshi recorded $4.4 billion per month. The CPM advocates that the market be projected to be governed by federal commodity laws, warning that the decentralization model in the Länder may drive consumers towards overseas platforms while weakening protection against insider trading and market manipulation. Growing divergences lie in regulatory vendettas, a game that may shape the future of the United States and even the global market for investment. How long will the confrontation between traditional sports games and forecast markets last? Where will 2026 go? In an interview with SIGMA, Stephen Christer, founder and Chief Executive Officer of SCG Management, explained the prospects for conflict and coexistence. Stephen Christer believes that the industry is approaching the regulatory crossroads: “The integration of the forecast market with traditional sports fairs has reached a critical point. The incident contract cannot simply apply the 20th century lottery law, while the regulator tries to insert it into an outdated framework.” He pointed out that such a mismatch was creating an inevitable conflict between federal regulation and state-level lottery systems.
The seriousness of the change is reflected in the choice of some operators: “The operator prefers to withdraw from the American Lottery Association or even to abandon the Nevada licence plates, as can be seen from the importance it attaches to predicting the market. It is not a symbolic move to leave the United States of America, but to announce that these products represent the future of the market, not marginal experiments.” At the state level, resistance is becoming stronger: “The cantonal regulatory bodies have drawn red lines, banned sporting events contracts and warned operators that even indirect participation could lead to the revocation of licence plates.” This fragmented regulatory puzzle, described by Christer, forces businesses to use geographical fencing, exit markets or restrict products to avoid conflict in jurisdictions. The contradiction is particularly acute in tribal lottery jurisdictions: “For tribal lottery authorities, the projected market for federal regulation is seen as a direct erosion of hard-won exclusive rights.” These platforms are often seen as “licensed sports fairs that exploit federal loopholes”. As a result, the industry has become increasingly fragmented: “Traditional operators and regulators have striven to maintain the existing system, while the Science and Technology Platform and the Innovation Sports Lottery promote a unified and coherent federal framework”. In his view, that division could be further widened before a compromise emerged.
Looking to the future, Christer sees 2026 as a potential turning point: “The regulator cannot rely on outdated legislation forever. Consumer demand already exists, investment is accelerating, and markets are projected to expand to states that have never been legalized to sports games.” He concluded that the solution was inevitable: “Prognanting that the market was on a collision track with traditional lottery that needed to be decided. Industry either evolves towards common sense regulation or continues to be mired in legal and political entanglement for no one to gain.” As it says, “those who adhere to the old rules manual are afraid of being abandoned by the market”.